Barely twenty-four hours ago, it was nothing but good news for Mitt Romney and his supporters, his
campaign revived by a strong performance in the first debate. Then new
job numbers came out, showing the economy adding 114,000 jobs in
September, upward revisions to the July and August numbers, and a drop
in the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent. The economic picture is full of
ambiguity, and Mitt Romney's challenge only grows more complex.So though it took longer
than
most people expected, Romney has finally made the "shift to the
center" that all presidential candidates are supposed to make once
they've gotten their party's nomination and no longer have to appeal to
their party's base.
This has been a
particularly tricky line for Romney to walk, since so many Republicans
saw his transformation from Massachusetts moderate to fire-breathing, "severely conservative" (as he put it) candidate as utterly insincere. So another ideological re-imagining had to be handled carefully.
When it came in a debate
in which Romney was performing with the skill honed in a thousand
boardroom PowerPoint presentations, the timing was perfect.
Conservatives had been at the point of panic, desperate for anything
that would turn the race around. With Romney emerging from the debate
with a newfound energy and momentum, they were more than happy to accept
a more moderate nominee.
And more moderate he did
indeed seem. Regulations? He's happy to accept them: "Regulation is
essential. You can't have a free market work if you don't have
regulation." Tax cuts for the wealthy? Heaven forfend. "I cannot reduce
the burden paid by high-income Americans." And that videotape in which
he sneered at the 47% of Americans who won't "take personal
responsibility and care for their lives"? After initially defending the
remarks, he was ready to make a 180 on that too. Since Obama never
brought it up during the debate, Romney went on Fox News the next day
and told Sean Hannity, "I said something that was just completely wrong.
When I become president, it will be about helping the 100%."
As both sides
understand, the trajectory of the economy matters more to voters than
the place it is in on Election Day. We all remember Ronald Reagan's
soft-focus, "Morning in America" ads from 1984 showing the country to be
in the best of economic times. But when Reagan was reelected,
unemployment was 7.2 percent, nearly as high as it is now. What mattered
was that two years before, it had been 10.8 percent. Things were
improving steadily, and that's what shaped voters' perception of the
economy.
Today, we have an
economy moving in the right direction, if not as fast as anyone would
like, meaning neither candidate gets a clear advantage out of economic
conditions. We have two candidates, both claiming that the middle class
is their primary concern. But one of them just started saying it in the
last 48 hours, and he's fighting against his own image and that of his
party. It will be an uphill slog.
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