Netanyahu's Likud Beitenu
won 31 Knesset seats in the Israel election, according to three TV exit
polls, gaining the most as expected. Jewish Home, an extreme right
party with a charismatic leader named Naftali Bennett, got 12 seats.
But the centrists and
leftists attracted waves of voters displeased with, among other things,
Israel's high cost of living, and more supportive of talks with
Palestinians. At first glance, the initial result reflects a politically
polarized electorate, with possibly an edge to the rightists.
Yossi Beilin, a
politician who is staunchly in the peace camp and one of the chief
architects of the Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative called the Oslo
Accords, said he thinks that it will be impossible for Netanyahu to form
his own government and he hopes none of the center-left parties join
his government.
"The center-left in
Israel is alive and kicking. It's almost the majority, or half and
half," he told CNN. "All the talks about the demise of the left are over
for the time being."
Yesh Atid party, a
movement devoted to helping the middle class and halting military draft
exemptions for ultra-Orthodox civilians, came in a surprising second
place with 19 seats, according to two exit polls, and 18, according to a
third.
The party also calls for
reforming the governmental system, improving education, jump-starting
the economy through small-business assistance, and providing housing
assistance for military veterans and young couples.
Its leader is a dynamic
figure -- Yair Lapid, a longtime prominent journalist whose late father,
Tommy Lapid, led Shinui, a onetime secularist party that took on the
influence and power of the ultra-Orthodox.
The Labor Party, whose
leader Shelly Yacimovich campaigned solely on economic concerns, pulled
17 seats. Before the election, she was expected to finish in second
place, so that is a surprise. She and other centrists were working to
tap into the disaffected Israelis who took to the Tel Aviv streets in
2011 to protest frustrating economic conditions.
Hatnua, the party of
former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni who is focused on talks with
Palestinians, gained seven seats. Another poll says Meretz, a longtime
left-wing party, gained seven seats.
"Politics is often about
expectations," said David Makovsky, an Israeli analyst at the the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"Once the public thought
that Netanyahu was a shoo-in, it assumed his victory and looked for a
fresh face that would be focused on issues that he has not prioritized.
This explains the meteoric rise of a new party (Yesh Atid) which said it
would focus on the middle class and find a way so the ultra-Orthodox
participate in burden-sharing by joining either the compulsory army or
civilian form of mandatory service.
One party in Israel
never gets a parliamentary majority of more than 60 seats, so parties
must rely on coalition-building. The question is whether Netanyahu will
stay on the right or center.
Will Netanyahu form a
right-wing coalition with Jewish Home and religious blocs like Shas --
which earned between 11 and 13 seats, exit polls show? Or will he move
to the center and try to form a coalition with Yesh Atid, for example,
and others? Or is it possible that a center-left coalition could be
cobbled together, without the right-wing?
Netanyahu and his party sensed Yesh Atid's momentum. He called on his backers to come out and vote.
"The Likud government is in danger, go vote for us for the sake of the country's future," he was quoted as saying.
After the exit polls
rolled in, he thanked Israelis on Facebook for his showing and indicated
that he wants to "a very wide government" as the hard work of coalition
building begins on Wednesday.
"The (election) results
observed are a great opportunity for many changes for the benefit of all
citizens of Israel. The complications ahead of us are many and wide, as
from tonight I will start my efforts to form a very wide government as
possible."
Michael Singh, managing
director at the Washington institute, said the result reflects polarized
politics in Israel. He said the immediate consequences of the result is
that coalition building will be quite difficult and time-consuming.
The worst-case scenario
would be government paralysis and maybe another election sooner rather
than later. While he said it's possible that a centrist coalition could
emerge led by Yesh Atid, which means "there is a future," and Labor, he
thinks Netanyahu and Lapid will form a government.
After the results came
in, Likud celebrated. Danny Danon, Likud party member and expected to
serve in the next Knesset, was asked why the Israeli-Palestinian peace
process hasn't been front-and-center in the campaign.
Both talks and the issue
of Iran were not as prominent among factors as expected by many
observers. Domestic issues, in contrast, played a large role in the
campaign.
Israel has no partner
among Palestinians, Danon said, and noted that peace initiatives have
been tried but they haven't borne fruit. He cited the situation in Gaza,
where militants fire missiles into Israel despite the country's
departure from that Palestinian territory. Israel launched an offensive
against Palestinian militants in Gaza last year after enduring missile
fire on its territory.
The next government, he said, will reach out to Palestinians "but will also continue to make sure Israelis are strong and safe."
Israel doesn't "want to see an al Qaeda state in our backyard," Danon said.
Makovsky said the
election is good news for the Obama administration, which has had
prickly relations with the right-wing Netanyahu government. It comes
after a high turnout -- the percentage of eligible voters who cast a
vote was 66.6%, just 1% more than the 2009 election.
"It's unclear if Netanyahu wanted a pure right-wing option in the first place," he said.
"But Washington can
breathe a sigh of relief that Netanyahu will need to reach accommodation
with some parties at the center of the map who essentially would like
to see progress on the Palestinian issue as well as on economic issues."
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