CNN’s new electoral map shifts in Donald Trump’s favor, but Hillary Clinton still holds the advantage

Road to 270: CNN's latest electoral college map

 

WashingtonThere are very few things that the Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigns agree on these days, but one point of total agreement is that this race has tightened over the last 10-14 days. That tightening is reflected in our new CNN "Road to 270" map.

The latest snapshot of the Electoral College map heading into the final days is a little more favorable to Trump, but Clinton still holds a clear advantage.

What's changed?

-- Maine's 2nd Congressional District moves from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

-- New Hampshire moves from "lean Democrat" to "battleground"

-- Ohio moves from from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

-- Utah from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

 

 

The state of play

We've made four moves in the map since our last update and all of them are in Donald Trump's direction. Ohio, Utah, and Maine's 2nd congressional district are all moving from the battleground/toss-up category to lean Republican. And New Hampshire is moving from lean Democratic to a pure battleground/toss-up state.

Clinton's electoral vote total is at 268 when you add up all the states that are solidly or leaning in her direction and Donald Trump's is 204 when you combine all the states that are solidly or leaning in his direction. That leaves six remaining battleground contests worth a total of 66 electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and the second congressional district in and around Omaha, Nebraska.

It's important to note what this map reflects and what it does not reflect: while he has made gains, Clinton remains in a much stronger electoral position than Trump. In the current snapshot, Clinton would only need to win one of the remaining toss-up states to secure the presidency. Trump needs to win all of them. However, this current map does represent an ever-so-slightly less steep mountain for him to to climb to 270 electoral votes.

The changes to the map reflect current polling, reporting with the campaigns and affiliated groups tracking the state of play in each critical state, television advertising decisions made by the campaigns and outside groups, and the candidate/surrogate travel schedules.

This is not a prediction of where the map will end up on Tuesday night when the votes are counted, it is simply a snapshot heading into the homestretch.

Solid Republican:

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (157 total)

Leans Republican:

Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), Ohio (18), Utah (6) (47 total)

Battleground states:

Arizona (11), Florida (29), Nevada (6), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), (66 total)

Leans Democratic:

Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (68 total)

Solid Democratic:

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5) (200 total)